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Yes, I've been messing about with our numbers. The infected/tested numbers are clearly worthless. If you take the death numbers and apply what seems to be emerging as the death rate of 0.1%, and apply what is the average time from tested to death of 14 days (at least here in Sweden) you can work out that over here we have a 20% infection rate right now (it's the red curve, but you need to shift it to the left by 14 days). It'll be 40% by Easter. And probably 60-70% a couple of weeks after that. It may be slower than this as places like Stockholm get saturated. The rest of the rather spread out towns and cites are probably a few weeks behind.

So a pretty shitty April is on the cards, but the summer may be saved.
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You can use the tested/infected and death numbers to work out how long it takes from tested to dead on average, and the chances of death after getting tested - which in Sweden is when you're admitted to hospital at the moment - it's 12.5% right now.

Just take the infected numbers and the dead numbers, work out the death rate for each day, and then time shift the dead versus infected until you get the most horizontal trend line. The time shift is how long it takes to die on average after getting tested.
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Wait until hits the shanty towns of India, Mexico, etc.
Yes. It'll rip through them. That's where it's spreading fastest here. Sweden has a bunch of ghettos that basically circle the cities (the so called no go areas). Rows and rows of hideous tower blocks jam packed with immigrants from the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans. They're showing up at hospitals and claiming they didn't know about the virus and how to behave because there were no instructions in Somali, or Urdu, or whatever language they speak (strangely they have no problem filling in a benefits claim form).

I guess a big difference is that in India, Mexico, etc they probably won't fill up the health service.
 

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Yes. It'll rip through them. That's where it's spreading fastest here. Sweden has a bunch of ghettos that basically circle the cities (the so called no go areas). Rows and rows of hideous tower blocks jam packed with immigrants from the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans. They're showing up at hospitals and claiming they didn't know about the virus and how to behave because there were no instructions in Somali, or Urdu, or whatever language they speak (strangely they have no problem filling in a benefits claim form).

I guess a big difference is that in India, Mexico, etc they probably won't fill up the health service.
Something else nobody is considering, if jumps from humans to animals. Imagine beef and lamb......
 

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With a 0.1% death rate, and 90% of them over 70, she's not doing a very good job.
Good point!

Maybe it’s Darwin’s theory, of natural selection, survival of the fittest, that has happened through time?

Or maybe it just some Chinese fuckwits , where eating bars! Dirty cunts!


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Good point!

Maybe it’s Darwin’s theory, of natural selection, survival of the fittest, that has happened through time?

Or maybe it just some Chinese fuckwits , where eating bars! Dirty cunts!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Eating bars, cunts.....no wonder 100 pubs closing every week.
 
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